UK polls, polls, polls – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities explained that it is premature, in our view, to think that the UK is out of the woods.

Key Quotes:

“We have now seen four polls released this week, with only one showing a Remain win, two a dead-heat, and one showing a Leave majority. With the recent deterioration in polls and a month still to go before the event, we believe the market’s recent surge in optimism looks premature and remains vulnerable to an unwind.

To put last week’s uptick in sentiment into context, it is important to note that we’ve been here before. During the third week of April, we also observed a similar spike in expectations for a Remain win. But like in late-April, we saw last week a higher share of telephone polls (vs. online polls) in the headlines akin to the dynamics in late-April.

As we’ve previously argued, this matters because the telephone polls have consistently favoured a Remain win by about ten percentage points. Online polls, in contrast, tend to be more carefully balanced and some have frequently pointed to a Leave win. Using the most recent six surveys as a “poll of polls”, or sentiment measure, the perceived surge in …read more

Source:: FX Street